CGRER member eyes flash floods

For 25 years, former UI professor Konstantine Georgakakos has had flash floods on the mind. In May 2008, Georgakakos will continue his quest to perfect a world-wide flash flood warning system, traveling with two colleagues from the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC) in San Diego to Tuxtla Gutierrez, Mexico to train workers for a proposed project he first began developing in the early ‘80s as a graduate student. The Center will also host 10-15 Chinese engineers this January 2008 for a three-week discussion on applying the warning system to China.

“Flash flooding is the number one disaster in terms of mortality rate,” Georgakakos said. “That is, the ratio of people dead over people affected. They’re very effective killers.”

An assistant and then associate professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the UI from 1985-1993, Georgakakos remains a member of the university’s Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research (CGRER). Now in California leading the HRC, a nonprofit institution affiliate of CGRER, Georgakakos researches ways to help better predict flash flood events. Flash floods cause roughly 5,000 deaths each year, according to Georgakakos, and he hopes his research will eventually help that number shrink.

In 2004, he developed the first large-scale system for flash flood warnings in Central America. Located in Costa Rica, the system receives meteorological information from sensors in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Panama.

“The next step, given the success of this system, is to take it to the world, to essentially develop a global flash flood guidance system that will empower local forecasters to have at their disposal global data to improve their flash flood warnings,” Georgakakos said.

In May 2007, the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) approved Georgakakos’ worldwide plan as one of its five initiatives during its Fifteenth Congress. The support comes not only from Georgakakos’ long-term research and expertise on the subject, but because of an overarching lack of predictive abilities with rainfall.

“It is well known within the atmospheric community that our skills in forecasting rainfall are poor,” said UI Prof. Witold Krajewski, a fellow CGRER member and board member for the HRC. “This is because precipitation is a result of many highly dynamic and difficult-to-predict processes that happen in the atmosphere. And without rainfall, there’s no flash flooding, so that’s your key, your first ingredient.”

Georgakakos works with nine other scientists at the HRC, devoting up to half of his total work schedule toward his flash flood warning system. The system divides the earth into 22 regions for analysis, and, following the endorsement from the WMO, Georgakakos estimated that his team could complete four of the regions within the next two years. Organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) have helped the HRC realize its global goals.

In total, the project will leave an estimated $7 million dent in the HRC's modest budget. With a little over $1 million in the bank thus far, Georgakakos continues to seek philanthropic funding to see the project through.

Most climate models show an increase in high intensity precipitation from global warming in the future, according to Georgakakos and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This, combined with the sheer number of low income housing located next to large bodies of water, keeps flash flooding at the fore for Georgakakos and the HRC.

“Our premise is that with a program that utilizes all local and global available information and the forecasters’ expertise and knowledge of their regions, as well as provides assistance for education of the public, we at least can provide a means to prevent some of the deaths,” he said. “In the final analysis, the decision is on the individuals, whether they heed a warning or not.”

By Soheil Rezayazdi




		CGRER member eyes flash floods For 25 years, former UI professor Konstantine Georgakakos has had flash floods on the mind. In May 2008, Georgakakos will continue his quest to perfect a world-wide flash flood warning system, traveling with two colleagues from the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC) in San Diego to Tuxtla Gutierrez, Mexico to train workers for a proposed project he first began developing in the early ‘80s as a graduate student. The Center will also host 10-15 Chinese engineers this January 2008 for a three-week discussion on applying the warning system to China. “Flash flooding is the number one disaster in terms of mortality rate,” Georgakakos said. “That is, the ratio of people dead over people affected. They’re very effective killers.” An assistant and then associate professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the UI from 1985-1993, Georgakakos remains a member of the university’s Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research (CGRER). Now in California leading the HRC, a nonprofit institution affiliate of CGRER, Georgakakos researches ways to help better predict flash flood events. Flash floods cause roughly 5,000 deaths each year, according to Georgakakos, and he hopes his research will eventually help that number shrink. In 2004, he developed the first large-scale system for flash flood warnings in Central America. Located in Costa Rica, the system receives meteorological information from sensors in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Panama. “The next step, given the success of this system, is to take it to the world, to essentially develop a global flash flood guidance system that will empower local forecasters to have at their disposal global data to improve their flash flood warnings,” Georgakakos said. In May 2007, the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) approved Georgakakos’ worldwide plan as one of its five initiatives during its Fifteenth Congress. The support comes not only from Georgakakos’ long-term research and expertise on the subject, but because of an overarching lack of predictive abilities with rainfall. “It is well known within the atmospheric community that our skills in forecasting rainfall are poor,” said UI Prof. Witold Krajewski, a fellow CGRER member and board member for the HRC. “This is because precipitation is a result of many highly dynamic and difficult-to-predict processes that happen in the atmosphere. And without rainfall, there’s no flash flooding, so that’s your key, your first ingredient.” Georgakakos works with nine other scientists at the HRC, devoting up to half of his total work schedule toward his flash flood warning system. The system divides the earth into 22 regions for analysis, and, following the endorsement from the WMO, Georgakakos estimated that his team could complete four of the regions within the next two years. Organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) have helped the HRC realize its global goals. In total, the project will leave an estimated $7 million dent in the HRC's modest budget. With a little over $1 million in the bank thus far, Georgakakos continues to seek philanthropic funding to see the project through. Most climate models show an increase in high intensity precipitation from global warming in the future, according to Georgakakos and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This, combined with the sheer number of low income housing located next to large bodies of water, keeps flash flooding at the fore for Georgakakos and the HRC. “Our premise is that with a program that utilizes all local and global available information and the forecasters’ expertise and knowledge of their regions, as well as provides assistance for education of the public, we at least can provide a means to prevent some of the deaths,” he said. “In the final analysis, the decision is on the individuals, whether they heed a warning or not.” By Soheil Rezayazdi